Not All Economic News Is Bad: Bright Spots from March Labor Statistics
Richard O’Sullivan, STC Economist
In pouring over the latest unemployment reports released last week by the US Department of Labor, I actually see signs of a recovery beginning to emerge. As an economist, reports from DOL’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) sometimes are like sifting through the lost-and-found closet at your child’s school. There is a wealth of information amongst the data—the challenge is to find the items that have the most meaning.
National news sources have already reported the headlines of another 663,000 jobs lost in March and another jump in the unemployment rate to 8.5 percent, the highest level since 1983; however, among the details are some encouraging signs. First, let’s remember that employment is always a lagging indicator behind economic trends. Just as businesses don’t layoff employees at the first sign of trouble, they also don’t start hiring with the first bump in new sales orders. Or, to put it bluntly, by the time we see large numbers of jobs being created, the recession will be over.
Here is what I see that encourages me:
The pain remains somewhat concentrated. While there were only a small handful of industries that posted employment gains, the job losses are still concentrated in a couple of industries. Of the 358,000 service sector jobs lost in March, nearly nine in every ten were in seven industries that tend to disproportionately suffer in most downturns. Most readers of this article could probably guess six of the industries on the list: retailers, trucking firms, financial service and real estate companies, hotels, wholesalers, and equipment repair services. But the steepest decline was in temporary services, which alone accounted for 94,000 layoffs. This is contrary to conventional wisdom that says businesses layoff permanent workers and rely on temporary services in tough times. In fact, the opposite is true. In tough times, businesses reduce outsourcing and give work to full-time employees who now have less of their core functions to do.
The other 305,000 layoffs were in the goods production sector. But, again, we found these losses concentrated in a few largely predictable industries. The construction industry alone was responsible for 126,000 lost jobs, nearly a third of the total. Just four industries, fabricated metal products, auto manufacturers, printing companies, and plastics manufacturers accounted for near half of the 161,000 manufacturing jobs that disappeared in March.
New jobs are being created. Computer systems and design services posted a modest gain in March and, in fact, have added 25,000 jobs over the past 12 months. Management and technical consulting have added 22,000 jobs since March 2007. Accounting services posted a modest increase from February to March (as one would expect during tax preparation time) but have actually lost 22,000 from a year ago. The healthcare industry, which is proving to be the leading job engine, added 14,000 jobs in ambulatory services, residential care, home healthcare services, doctors’ offices, and more from February to March alone. Over the past 12 months, the healthcare sector has created 324,000 jobs. Yet, at the same time, hospitals laid off personnel in March. In 2008, hospitals reported a record number of mass layoffs (defined as job cuts of 50 employees or more). Educational services, particularly adult education, is becoming a booming business as younger workers prepare for career changes and older workers, having seen their savings decimated in the Wall Street collapse, rethink their retirement plans. Since March 2008, private sector educational services firms have added 66,000 new jobs.
The new jobs are being created in companies with less than 100 employees. This is because big companies no longer drive the economy. According to the US Small Business Administration, 70 percent of the jobs created in the last decade have been in companies with less than 100 employees. One-third of all jobs created in this decade are in occupations/professions that did not exist in the 1990s. Smaller companies hold 75 percent of the patents issued since 1997 and now account for the majority of the workforce. Among the industries that drove the economy before the recession were finance, construction, hospitality, and real estate. During the recovery, the growth industries will be adult education, business services, lifestyle management (i.e., corporate wellness programs), and healthcare, to name a few.
All boats will not rise with the tide. Many of those industries that reported the steepest declines will not revive with the recovery. Some real estate experts believe it will take the better part of a decade for the residential housing market to revive. Like a rock thrown into a pond, the drop in housing will wash over the construction industry, retailers, and home products manufacturers (including major appliances, home textile, and consumer electronics manufacturers) for some time.
Technical Communicators will need to shift their search for employment across different industries. Having an expertise in technical writing for just one industry is not going to be as valuable as having an expertise in the process of technical communication. Your next job is likely to be in a very different industry than the one that laid you off. You will need to demonstrate how your experience in financial services, for example, will apply to healthcare or education service providers. Looking to largest employers in your region for your next tech comm job may prove a fool’s errand. Like the rest of the economy, tech comm jobs will increasingly be with smaller firms selling their services to other smaller businesses. Rather than providing technical communication services within one company, you may need to manage technical communications across several firms.
New strategies for finding your next job will also be needed. Don’t expect tech comm job listings to be published in your local newspaper, as research has shown more than 80 percent of all higher paying jobs are never listed. Networking is not just recommended, it’s essential. STC and its resources will be a vital source for connecting with opportunities. You will also want to add the local Chamber of Commerce meetings to your networking schedule (and other events where business professionals gather). Staying connected to your peers by participating in local chapter meetings and STC SIGs, and actively networking to learn what sectors are hiring and what job search strategies are working best will be imperative to manage your career through this watershed period in the economy and the technical communication profession.